worldwide ramsDoug Nelson Overview: While the Rams-Vikings rivalry isn't what it used to be, it brings back a flood of memories for long-time Ram fans. In the playoffs, December/January trips to Minnesota to play challenging, physical games in the old Metropolitan Stadium, usually in freezing weather watching Alan Page, Roman Gabriel, Jack Youngblood, and Chuck Foreman. It all brings back many memories of a rougher, more challenging time in the N.F.L. When football was football, and a concussion was a "headache." Sadly, for Rams fans, the Minnesota Vikings, then known informally as the "Purple People Eaters" {when is that last time you heard them called that?} usually won these games when it mattered. But there haven't been all that many of these matchups that meant much in recent years. The two teams haven't met in the playoffs since the 1999 shootout won by the Los Angeles Rams. Since then, when they met in the regular season, it was usually a tame, meaningless, vanilla-flavored affair in a domed stadium. With at least one of the teams mired in mediocrity and not much on the line. In the last 20 years, it's hard to think of a matchup when both teams were playoff contenders, and the game meant something. Welcome the late December 2021 and a Rams Vikings game that matters again. It almost FEELS like a playoff game-- And for Minnesota, it almost is. A loss won't eliminate the Vikings from playoff contention, but it will put their season on life support. The Rams will likely make the playoffs either way, but if they have any hope of taking the N.F.C. West title, they had better win this game. So, let's take a look at how these teams match up. Rams Offense vs. Vikings Defense: This is the side of the ball where the Vikings have struggled so far this season. The Vikings are 30th in the N.F.L. in yards per game, giving up an average of just over 380 yards. Only the Seattle Seahawks and the New York Jets rank lower than them. They are 29th in passing yards, surrendered on average at a little over 250. They aren't excellent at stopping the run either, coming in 27th in that category. In one battle with wide receiver Cooper Kupp versus Vikings corner Alexander McKenzie, the Rams have the upper hand. Does anyone think McKenzie can win this battle one-on-one? The Vikings probably don't either, which is why they will likely ask either Pro-Bowl Safety Harrison Smith or corner Xavier Woods to help out, especially in deeper coverage. Even so, Kupp hasn't been shut down all season, and we don't expect it will happen on Sunday. The Vikings have Patrick Peterson, the former Cardinal cornerback, but this isn't Patrick Peterson five years ago. He's still a heady veteran, though, and he knows the Rams offense from his days in Arizona. He will probably see a lot of Odell Beckham Jr. OBJ is growing steadily more familiar with the Rams offense, and while he didn't do a lot against the Seahawks on Tuesday night, he had scored touchdowns in the three previous games. He could be a factor here. We're going to play a hunch and say that Rams wideout Van Jefferson could have a big game. We're not sure that Minnesota has enough depth in the secondary to cover Kupp and OBJ and still control Jefferson, a quality number three receiver. The Rams like to take their shots downfield with Jefferson, and if he can haul in a couple of big catches, it will significantly help the L.A. offense in this game. While the Viking's secondary is not "all that," they can get after the quarterback, leading the league in sacks. The Rams O-line has been excellent most of the year, but they gave up four sacks on Tuesday against a Seahawks team that generally doesn't excel in pressuring the quarterback. The good news for the Rams is that right tackle Rob Havenstein has been activated for this game. Bobby Evans, the third-stringer, started against the Seahawks. We aren't going to say the Rams pass-protection issues in that game were all because of Evans—they weren't. But there is a reason why Havenstein is the starter here, and getting him back is good news. The other good news for the Rams is the return of Tyler Higbee at tight end. Higbee is a competent blocker and an outstanding receiver. If the Vikings pass rush does start to pressure Stafford, he could come into play as a safety valve for Matthew Stafford. The other thing worth mentioning for the Rams is the recent emergence of Sony Michel as a legitimate running threat. He rushed for 90 yards against the Seahawks the other night, and Coach Sean McVay seems to be making a sincere effort to run a balanced offense. That wasn't always the case early in the season. Update: As this was written, it announced that left tackle Andrew Whitworth was placed on the COVID-19 list, likely meaning he will not be eligible for this game. That's terrible news for the Rams, primarily as his backup, Joseph Noteboom, remained on the COVID list at last report. We'll still check this box for the Rams, but this is potentially awful news for the Rams in this game if Noteboom does not return. EDGE: RAMS Vikings Offense vs. Rams Defense: Speaking of COVID-19, the Vikings will be without one of their significant playmakers, running back Dalvin Cook. Cook is an explosive runner named the N.F.C. starter at his position for the Pro Bowl. The Vikings are fortunate to have a very competent backup in Alexander Mattison. Mattison lack's Cook's explosiveness, but he is a powerful downhill runner who can pick up the tough yards between the tackles. Mattison would likely start for about half of the teams, so while Cook's loss does matter, it isn't necessarily a backbreaker for the Vikings. The Vikings will also be without center Mason Cole, while his opposite for the Rams, nose tackle Greg Gaines, is listed as questionable. This season, Gaines has been a real surprise for the Rams, filling in for Sebastion Joseph Day well enough so that the Rams defense hasn't missed a beat. The Rams hope he can go on Sunday. The marquee matchup on this side of the ball is Rams corner Jalen Ramsey versus Vikings wideout Justin Jefferson. We think Cooper Kupp is the best receiver in the N.F.L. right now, but Jefferson is undoubtedly not far down on the list. Ramsey made several critical plays in the Rams win over Seattle on Tuesday. He's probably the best corner in the league right now; he certainly is on the N.F.C. (some might argue for the Patriot's JC Jackson or the Bills. Tradevious White, who is currently injured, of the A.F.C.). The battle of Ramsey versus Jefferson is as good as you will see this season and worth the price of admission by itself. Aaron Donald is still the best overall defender in the N.F.L., and the Viking's loss of their starting center does not help Minnesota's chances in this game. If you look at his sack totals and see the number 11, you might think he's, well, pretty good. But if you have watched the games this season, you know those numbers don't tell the story. Whether it is tying up 2-3 blockers, tipping passes to cause interceptions, or tackling runners on either side of the line of scrimmage, A.D. is a force of nature. The Vikings don't necessarily have a tremendous offensive line even without Cole's injury. Pro Football Focus recently rated them 24th in the N.F.L. Containing AD, Leonard Floyd, Von Miller [who got his first sack as a Ram on Tuesday] will be asking a lot. Cook was a significant threat catching the ball out of the backfield, so his absence could hurt in that regard. Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins is having a great year statistically. But he has never been able to shake the "can't win the big one" label. On Sunday, he will get a chance to at least put a dent in it. Edge: Rams Special Teams: Did we mention the Rams' Matt Gay is the N.F.C. Pro Bowl kicker and honor that is well-deserved. He gets the edge over Minnesota's Greg Joseph in that department. Sadly, the same can't be said of Ram's special teams as a whole. They've been a problem all season, and while there has been some improvement, they still are not good. Minnesota's are certainly above average. We'll leave it at that. Edge: Vikings Coaching: The Vikings Mike Zimmer is considered a defensive mastermind, but that hasn't been reflected on the field this season.
Sean McVay is still one of the top coaches in the league. You can criticize him for getting overly pass-happy at times or for making seemingly dumb decisions, like going for it on fourth down from his own 30 early in a game recently. Nobody is perfect, but there aren't many teams who wouldn't hire Sean McVay to lead their teams if he was available. His coaching tree is pretty good at this point, with former Rams assistants with the Bengals, Packers, and Chargers all in the playoffs or knocking on the door. The fact that he keeps losing coaches of that quality and still has his team in the hunt for a Super Bowl tells you a lot. Edge: Rams Final Prediction: The toll COVID-19 takes on this game makes predicting an outcome dicey. We could still have more additions or subtractions to these rosters by kickoff on Sunday, for all we know. Ram's loss of Andrew Whitworth may not be a massive deal if Joseph Noteboom is available to fill in, but it could be a huge deal if that happens. The Viking's loss of Cook and Cole is likewise hard to gauge. We like Mattison as a running back, but when you come right down to it, there is a reason why starters are starters, and Dalvin Cook is an elite back. The Vikings, meanwhile, could easily be 11-3, but they keep losing games in the final seconds [including a head-scratching loss to the Detroit Lions]. Is that bad luck or an inability to perform under pressure? Or maybe a little of both? The Rams are favored by 2.5. We'll say: Rams 30 Vikings 27
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worldwide ramsDoug Nelson Overview: This is essentially a must-win game for the Los Angeles Rams. Not so much because of their playoff standing. The NFC West is likely out of reach at this point, and even a loss on Sunday would not mathematically kill their chances of a wildcard spot. But let's be honest, the last few weeks have been downright ugly, and if the Rams don't turn things around on Sunday, it's hard to determine if they can. If they can't defeat a 2-9 team with a rookie quarterback at home, it's a reach to say that things will get better on the road next week against an Arizona team that many consider being the best in the NFL. The Rams NEED to win this game to be a credible contender. Even a win (by itself) won't re-establish the team's earlier status as a Super Bowl contender, but it will at least keep hope alive for the 2021 season. And by "WIN," we don't mean a last-second field goal for a one-point win, although that might at least keep the Rams playoff deathwatch on hold for another week. They don't necessarily need to blow the Jaguars out, but a double-digit victory with some strong performances on both sides of the ball would be excellent. The Rams must play better in this game over the last month or so, or this season will likely be a lost cause. It's that simple. Rams Offense vs. Jags Defense: A must question to be asked, "What in the #!&%! is wrong with Matthew Stafford?" Because something doesn't seem right, no matter what anybody says. It's not so much his passing yards/touchdowns. In last week's loss to the Green Bay Packers, Aaron Rodgers only out-passed Stafford by five yards. Stafford did show glimpses of the guy we saw earlier this season after a long touchdown pass to Odell Beckham was a thing of beauty. Cooper Kupp notched 97 yards in receptions. At times, Stafford resembled the like of an MVP contender, threading the needle for completions that not many NFL quarterbacks can succeed. Unfortunately, we also saw the Stafford that we had seen way too much of in recent weeks. A pick-six, a pass that he should never have thrown. A fumble—again—deep in Rams territory led to another Packer's touchdown. Stafford missed a wide-open Tyler Higbee for what would have been a first down. And there were numerous others too that could be listed here. Stafford insists that while he's a little banged up (as everyone is this time of year), his injuries are not impacting how he plays. We aren't sure that we believe that. The ball seems to keep sailing in some of his incompletions/picks in ways that seem a little odd. At other times, it looks like he is trying to force plays that aren't there or that he does not see the field. The panic fumbles were deep in Ram territory that continues happening for no apparent reason. Coach McVay has rushed to Stafford's defense, but the bottom line is that he hasn't been good enough over the past month. Shades of Jared Goff, 2020. In a way, it would almost be reassuring if injuries were affecting his performance. Because if HE is the quarterback to lead the Rams into the near future, that's a problem. So on to the Jacksonville Jaguars defense; they aren't bad for a 2-9 team on this side of the ball, ranking 20th in overall defense. They are 21st against the run, giving up an average of 115 yards per game. Jacksonville is low-middle of the pack (18th) in passing defense, surrendering an average of 244 yards per game. This defense also held the allegedly high-powered Buffalo Bills offense to a mere 6 points in an upset win a few weeks back. So they can play well, especially if Stafford and the Rams keep celebrating the holidays by giving away the football, as has been the case recently. Rams wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr is questionable with a hip pointer, but both he and McVay say they expect him to play. Running back Darrell Henderson is listed as a game-time decision. If he can't go, or maybe even if he can, the Rams may need to make a roster move at running back, as Sony Michel is the only 100 percent healthy running back on the game-day roster at this moment, the third running back, Buddy Howell, is out with an injury. With a foot injury, the Rams starting right tackle Rob Havenstein is also questionable. The Jags do have some credible players on this side of the ball. In the upset win over Buffalo, EDGE rusher Josh Allen haunted the Bills player of the same name entirely the whole game. Allen is a legit outstanding player who would be a household name on a better team. He'll likely face off against Rams tackle Andrew Whitworth; Jacksonville probably needs to win to have a chance. Allen is Jacksonville's only real pass-rushing threat. However, if he can regularly get in the Rams backfield and apply pressure to put Stafford into some bad situations, this game could differ from most expectations. Allen can be a game-changer, as he showed against the Bills. His 5.5 sacks on the season don't tell the entire story because often he is double-teamed. Jacksonville linebacker Myles Jack is a well-regarded player with a bit of an off-year, especially against the run. The Jags will be without Shaq Griffin, whom the Rams know well from his days as a Seattle Seahawk. Griffin likely would have taken on OBJ if both had been healthy, but you can scratch that matchup for this week. Assuming he plays, Beckham can overcome a lack of practice time this week to take advantage of Griffin's absence remains to be seen. Of course, we will check this box for the Rams offense, but if they go into turnover mode—again—who knows. The Jag's defense is not awful. Just ask Josh Allen, the quarterback. EDGE: RAMS Rams Defense vs. Jags Offense: The offensive side of the ball is where the Jaguars struggle, averaging about 15 points a game. Only the Houston Texans score fewer points than the Jaguars. Rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence is physically gifted, but he also is going through the usual rookie growing pains, having just nine touchdown passes versus ten picks. In fairness, he doesn't have much to work with in terms of weapons. His best running back, James Robinson, is listed as questionable for this game with leg and heal injuries. You don't want Lawrence exposed to Aaron Donald, Von Miller, and Leonard Floyd in the pass rush too often if you are Jacksonville. We guess that Robinson will play; whether he will be at full strength is another question. The Jags do have a legit weapon at the wide receiver position. Laviska Shenault has 45 receptions for 448 yards paces the Jags receivers. His longest reception is 58 yards, and he is the one player that you worry about as a potential "big-play threat." He's not lightning fast, but neither is Cooper Kupp, but he plays well. At six-foot-1 and 227 pounds, he's a physical player who can win matchups and move the chains. The Rams have been moving Jalen Ramsey around in coverage; however, he's the only Rams corner who regularly has the physicality to go head-to-head with Shenault, so we think they might get matched up quite a bit on Sunday. Carlos Hyde will likely get the bulk of the work in the ground game if Robinson can't go. Hyde is a functional NFL back, but he lacks Robinson's considerable playability. On the other hand, the Rams rush defense hasn't been "all that's this season. They have been downright dismal at times, as they were in a loss to the San Francisco 49ers a couple of weeks ago. We expect the Jags to try to emulate the Niners and go "ground and pound." The Rams did hold Green Bay to a decent 91 yards on the ground last week, and having to pay attention to Trevor Lawrence and the Jags passing game is not the same thing the Rams faced the previous week. Even so, if they get mauled and pushed around by the Jacksonville ground game, a la San Francisco, this could be yet another horrid outing for the Rams. It will also make the hot seat under defensive coordinator Raheem Morris—which is already pretty uncomfortable—possibly not survivable. We don't think Morris will get dismissed during the season, but he is coaching for his job at this point. Edge:Rams Special Teams: We would rather not talk about the Rams special teams; other than kicker Matt Gay is pretty good. Everything else? Not so much. Who knows what the Rams will do in the punt return game. J.J. Koski contributed a critical fumble last week against Green Bay. We really don't like Cooper Kupp returning punts, but he may end up doing it again by default. We talked about Raheem Morris being on the hot seat. The guess here is that special teams coach Joe DeCamillis is probably gone after this season unless the Rams show radical improvement here. The special team is a huge problem area, and they don't seem to be getting any better. Edge: Jacksonville Coaching: The unthinkable is starting to be thought about in Los Angeles, namely whether Sean McVay is the boy genius that everyone has considered him to be over the last few years. We don't think his job is in jeopardy this season, but if the Rams tank the rest of the way and miss the playoffs, who knows? What is probably more likely is a wholesale reshuffling of his coaching staff unless the team can rally and make a postseason run. The talent is in place to do that. Coaching is another question.
Even so, Urban Meyer has not exactly set the world on fire, and his job is likely very much in jeopardy. Right now, he looks like another hotshot college coach who just couldn't cut it in the NFL. We will check the box for the Rams, but that is mostly by default in this case. Edge: Rams Final Prediction: The usual platitudes about "not taking a losing team lightly' should not apply here because this is a big game for the Rams, with their season possibly on the line. They are favored by 13, and they should win. But, for the sake of argument, if the Jags can come out and run the ball, eat the clock with long drives and get help from some Ram turnovers, an upset could happen. We've seen that movie way too often in recent weeks with the Rams. We hope the Rams play with a sense of urgency and return to the form they showed earlier this season. Stafford has to be better, special teams have to play better, and the rush defense should be lights out. If that happens, hello 8-4. Goodbye to playing the Super Bowl at home next February if it doesn't. We are going to hope for the best. Rams 34 Jags 21 |
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